Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Davidson County Cut Its Chronic Rate by 18 Points in Two Years

Davidson County Schools dropped from 29.4% to 11.4% chronic absence, the largest North Carolina district to improve this far this fast.

Correction (June 4, 2026): District-level enrollment and chronic absence counts in this article were corrected after a data processing error that double-counted each district's school rows was identified and fixed. The corrected figures are drawn from each district's official summary record. Chronic absence rates were essentially unaffected, but the comparison among districts was revised: Davidson is the largest North Carolina district to improve this far, rather than the fastest-improving district overall.

Davidson County Schools went from a 29.4% chronic absence rate in 2021-22 to 11.4% in 2023-24. That is an 18-point improvement in two years, and at 18,456 students Davidson is the largest district in the state to improve that far. No North Carolina district bigger than Davidson cut its rate even 15 points over the same span. The drop puts Davidson County just 3.4 points above its pre-COVID rate of 8.0%.

In a state where virtually every district with comparable data remains above its pre-pandemic baseline, Davidson County is quietly approaching something close to normalcy. The 18,456-student district south of Greensboro has been below the state average in every year of available data, including now: its 11.4% sits more than 13 points below the state's 25.0%.

Davidson County trend

The COVID gap in Davidson's data

The 2019-20 school year has no usable chronic absence count for Davidson County. The figure is suppressed in the state record, almost certainly because COVID-era school closures disrupted the attendance counting period that spring. The statewide figure for that year, 9.3%, is also artificially low and should be treated as an artifact rather than a real improvement.

Setting the COVID year aside, Davidson's trajectory is: 8.0% in 2017-18, 8.3% in 2018-19, 9.3% in 2020-21, then a spike to 29.4% in 2021-22, followed by 14.4% in 2022-23 and 11.4% in 2023-24. The spike and the rapid recovery mirror the state pattern but at lower magnitude. Davidson's peak of 29.4% was 2 points below the state's peak of 31.2%, and its current 11.4% is more than 13 points below the state's 25.0%.

Among the largest districts to recover this fast

Recovery leaders

Among the state's large districts, those with 10,000 or more students, only Burke County cut its rate slightly faster, by 18.9 points. But Burke is smaller, at 11,766 students. At 18,456 students, Davidson is the largest district in North Carolina to improve by more than 18 points from the 2022 peak, and one of only a handful of large districts to clear a 15-point improvement at all.

Davidson vs. state

The consistency is what stands out. Davidson has not merely recovered. It has maintained a gap below the state average every year, including during the pandemic spike, when its peak stayed below 30% even as the statewide rate topped 31%. Whatever combination of community engagement, district leadership, and socioeconomic conditions drives attendance in Davidson County, the district paired a relatively contained spike with one of the strongest recoveries among the state's largest districts.

The district's experience does not translate easily to Durham (37.2%) or Robeson County (40.7%), which face different demographic and geographic challenges. But it does answer a question that many districts are asking: whether rapid recovery from a near-30% peak is possible. In Davidson County, the answer is yes. The 11.4% rate is not yet back to the 8.0% pre-COVID baseline, but it is within striking distance, and the trajectory is still improving.

Detailed code that reproduces the analysis and figures in this article is available exclusively to EdTribune subscribers.

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